John Lahart (Dublin South West, Fianna Fail) | Oireachtas source

This is probably the first meeting where the rubber has started to hit the road since this committee was formed. I welcome IFAC. Having served on the previous Committee on Budgetary Oversight, placed a great deal of stock in IFAC's reports and made the point continuously that this kind of advice was absent at the time of the crash, it is worth repeating that, broadly speaking, the only advice against a soft landing that was coming to the Government at the time was from a fairly obscure economist from UCD. Now, there is a plethora of advices. For the past five years, IFAC has been warning about corporation tax. It is warning about the over-reliance on that tax again. The previous Government only moved on that advice in its final year in the form of the rainy day fund in the budget. Despite the fact that such a fund was included in the 2016 confidence and supply agreement, it was really only introduced and activated in 2019. It has now been exhausted as a result of Covid.

For me, a reasonable summary from a lay man's point of view is this: Covid has cost an inordinate amount of money, but in spending that money, the Government has fulfilled the unwritten but expected social contract between the State and its citizens by bolstering them and providing a safety net when they needed it. We expect a big bounce, although there is a question mark over how big it will be. IFAC continues to warn about the sustainability of the corporation tax figures and, for the umpteenth year, has warned about the over-reliance on a number of companies. Our debt is significant and will have to be serviced. The Government's plan is to have no income tax increases. Proceeds from the bounce, be it large or modest, will be exhausted by Sláintecare and housing, meaning that there will not be a great deal of room for manoeuvre unless spending is reined in or there is some creativity in terms of the tax system. Is that a fair summary of the situation?