Mr. Dara Lynott:

Data centres take up about 9% of demand and are projected to grow by between 19% and 50% over the next decade reaching an expected 27% of electricity demand, so they are a very big player within electricity demand. The difficulty and opportunity are that they require high availability. There is a possible flexibility in terms of either storage they provide to the system or their backup generation may make provision for system services. This is something that is being actively pursued by EirGrid in its discussions with data centres.

Regarding geographic possibility in the recent consultation on the future of our electricity system by EirGrid, it has indicated that one of the potential routes is shifting demand to where electricity is being generated. The potential is then to shift data centres closer to concentrations of electricity generation that would minimise the amount of grid that needs to be developed to bring power to the centre of data centres, which is around the Dublin area. Again, this is very much into the future.

Regarding storage, the hope is that the advent of significant numbers of electric vehicles and smart metering will allow some of the technology or at least the smart technology to pass through a smart meter and potentially provide for system services. This is envisaged within the clean energy package but, again, we are waiting for the legislation and the regulatory framework that would allow this to happen. There is a challenge. The Chairman mentioned the Dunkelflaute.

A two-week period was modelled using the pan-European proprietary PLEXOS model, which includes the UK and EEA countries and has the ability to take on board weather data. The modelling indicated that, in such periods in 2030, all available generation capacity from gas will be needed, all interconnections will be needed and 1.1 GW of storage will be needed, which is not available on the system currently. The volume of storage is the difficulty. Our study cited an example. In a two-week window of low wind speeds, and assuming 13.5 kWh per unit, the equivalent of approximately 65 million Tesla Powerwalls would be required. Obviously, we are not at that level of technology. Long-duration storage technologies could provide some of the solutions. By that, I mean pumped hydro, of which Turlough Hill is an example, compressed air energy storage, thermal energy storage using liquid salt or hot rocks, liquid air energy storage and novel battery compositions. Some of the projects in this category are in Silvermines, County Tipperary and compressed air energy storage in Islandmagee, County Antrim. They are the types of storage that could provide backup to address the Dunkelflaute. There is a great deal being done in terms of battery storage, with much storage coming on the system. There is a call for many hybrid systems in the future, combining renewables with storage on the same site. I have already mentioned data centres, which might be able to provide some storage and system services. The private vehicle fleet forms part of the package of materials around storage. Reverting to my point about 65 million Tesla Powerwalls, though, will it have the impact that is needed to back up an electricity generation system that is 40% larger than it is currently?

Regarding hydrogen, it is important to stress that, because the Electricity Association of Ireland represents the entire value chain, we are technology neutral. Our study considered what potential technologies could be used in 2030 to ensure backup generation, which is currently being provided by something else. The two significant runners in that race are hydrogen and carbon capture and storage. Along with issues of interconnection and battery storage, the difficulty is that these are expensive and complex capital projects that require a great deal of planning and lead-in time. Therefore, we believe that the focus needs to be on undertaking a cost-benefit analysis and proper assessment of the technology that will be needed on an all-island basis to provide backup generation. Hydrogen is definitely one such technology. Throughout Europe, there is considerable investment in the use of green hydrogen through electrolysers. Europe would say that, in the first instance, hydrogen could be used as a fuel for the hard-to-electrify sectors, including aviation, maritime, heavy transport and some large industries that are currently using fossil fuels. Hydrogen also provides a system service potential in terms of storage, in that it could become a fuel during a Dunkelflaute.

These decisions can only be made if we assess them correctly, pick the right winners for Ireland and back this up with legislation and regulation that invite the private sector to come forward with solutions that support Ireland's renewables ambitions.