Professor John FitzGerald:

Senator Blaney referred to external support from the US and the EU. Remember that Ireland is one of the richest countries in the EU. The EU will contribute a token but it will be a token. The case in terms of the US is similar. Even with the complications involved, a united Ireland would still be one of the richest countries in the world. I do not think expecting the rest of the world to provide a subvention is realistic. In the context of an exit, the UK might be prepared to run down its subvention over a period of ten years. I would be nervous about that, first, in the context of trusting whether it would continue and, second, that the window of opportunity would be well used. In other words, when making the change, in order to avoid the need for a huge transfer from South to North in order to make it sustainable, there would be a need to transform the Northern economy. Would this lead to delays? For example, instead of dramatically changing the educational system on day one, would people say that we could delay doing so for?

The substance of our paper is that Northern Ireland needs to make the change now, whether it is for unification or to continue within the United Kingdom. If it does not do so, it will find itself in a difficult place within the United Kingdom or will make a united Ireland very difficult. It is the urgency of using the opportunity rather than expecting a deus ex machinaor a fairy godmother or godfather to wave a magic wand and make it all come right.

We have to do it for ourselves.

I share Professor Morgenroth's opinion on North-South co-operation and implementation bodies. If it can work, it can work. Energy and climate change would be priorities for me. That is where we need to work together. I represented Northern Ireland, among others, in the negotiations with the Republic on setting up the all-island electricity market. One of the reasons it worked was there was no implementation body and it passed under the radar. It still works. It is up to the politics of Northern Ireland to determine whether there should be a formal body or what will work there. We need greater co-operation on energy, the environment and climate change. That will also involve co-operation with the other island. That is important. Until now, the United Kingdom has been a leader on climate change, although I am a bit suspicious as to whether that is going to continue. There has been a lot of talk.

We have talked about Germany. Our job as researchers is to be honest with the people and tell them the costs involved. This committee is discussing all the issues, and the economic costs are probably the least of the issues compared with how to create an integrated system. Civil servants will probably need to be fired, North and South, to produce a more efficient system. We must consider how to tell the people, North and South, what it means to set up a system. We have to be upfront about the economics.

I have worked extensively in Vietnam over the past decade. It is another country that has reunified. The process there was pretty bloody and, thankfully, that is not relevant to Ireland. It is interesting that I have not met anybody in the Administration from the rich south of Vietnam who is living in the north. They do not work in the north because they are paid much more in the south. The situation in Vietnam was that the poor North Vietnam took over South Vietnam and left the south of unified Vietnam to be rich. That system that has worked in Vietnam but on a small island, I am not sure it would work. To integrate, consideration would have to be given, as it was in German reunification, to the integration of the welfare system, wage rates and so on.

There has been a lot of talk about subvention. The economics of this situation are far more complicated and much work has to be done. Keep up the good work.