Professor Edgar Morgenroth:

On the issue of subvention, there is another way of looking at it. Rather than simply looking at what is currently there, one can look at Northern Ireland or similar regions and how they perform within a country. In the Republic of Ireland, certain areas, such as the midlands, for example, are vastly underperforming economically and are getting a very substantial subvention. Northern Ireland is sort of in the realm of the midlands in terms of productivity. That means there will inevitably be a substantial transfer, whether that be an explicit transfer such as the one that is implied by the Barnett formula or whether it is implicit, like what we have in the Republic of Ireland. Dublin is the only part of the Republic of Ireland that makes a surplus. I have published research on this in international journals. The south-west region breaks even on taxes and expenditure but all the other regions are actually getting a subvention that is basically paid for by Dublin. Dublin makes that revenue that can be redistributed. Similarly, in a united Ireland, if Northern Ireland has lower productivity than the average, then it will be subject to some form of subvention. We can argue about the size of that subvention but it certainly would be present.

On the issue of efficiency and duplication, there are areas in which we could make significant gains but we need to first elaborate on which system will be chosen. For example, will something like the NHS be chosen for the health system or will the HSE be chosen? There seem to be differences in efficiencies across those two organisations. That is something about which we need to think. It may be that a completely different and even more efficient system is what is wanted, but we would have to invent that. There is already scope within Northern Ireland for a reduction in duplication. Reference was made to education. There are sort of parallel systems in that regard that do not seem to be fully utilised. Many schools are not at capacity and there is extra cost involved in that which could probably be better used to help young people to achieve their best potential.

On the issue of poverty, it is something that is particularly evident in crises. The financial crisis and the Covid crisis seem to disproportionately affect the people at the bottom end of income distribution. That is something with which we will need to deal in a far more systematic way. There are issues around housing, for example, that are very significant in this regard and where the trends are all going in the wrong way.

However, that is not unique to Northern Ireland; we see it elsewhere. That is certainly not going well.