Dr. Alan Renwick:

Perhaps I will say a little more in addition to what Professor McCrudden said a moment ago about the criteria. Perhaps I should respond also on the definition of "imminent". I think Professor McCrudden dropped out of the meeting for a moment so may not have heard the question about protection of rights under the ECHR. Perhaps we should ask Dr. Kenny to come in first on that and Professor McCrudden can pick up from him.

The question of a new constitution is an issue on which we do not take a view as a working group. We set out the various possibilities but we do not take a view on the form a united Ireland should take. I agree entirely with everything Professor McCrudden said about the criteria the Secretary of State might use. One additional point we made is that we envisage that, at least in some scenarios, the Secretary of State might see that it may be the case that a majority would vote for unification, so it may be the case that that criterion is met. In that circumstance, ideally the Secretary of State would announce a formal process to review whether in fact that criterion is met. Ideally, we suggest that the Secretary of State, perhaps with the Irish Government, set up an independent review process to look properly at what exactly the criteria should be and what exactly the weight attached to different criteria should be; that that review process come up with a judgment; and that it might take a year - it would depend on exactly what evidence were available - to come to a view as to whether in fact that criterion had been met. Of course, however, it is also the case that in law it is for the Secretary of State to make that decision, so the Secretary of State cannot in law make his or her judgment dependent on the view of an independent panel or indeed the Irish Government.

As for the definition of "imminent", at the moment it is I think fairly unproblematic to say it does not appear that a majority would vote for unification because none of the plausible criteria point in that direction. There is no polling evidence that suggests that a majority would vote for unification. There are different types of polls and surveys and, as the committee will know very well, they produce very different answers, but at the moment none of them suggests there is currently a majority for unification. Similarly, neither the composition of the Northern Ireland Assembly nor votes cast in recent elections give evidence that there would be a majority at present for unification. We, therefore, define "imminence" in terms of what we can see from the evidence at present. Of course, the evidence can change, and we do not take a view as to how quickly opinion could change, but "imminent" we see in terms of the current state of the evidence.

I shall hand over to Dr. Kenny on the human rights question.