Dr. Alan Renwick:

I thank the Deputy. I will reply certainly to the first two questions and perhaps also say something about the third. I am sure my colleagues will also want to come in on that, however.

On the first question about the origins of this work, we were not commissioned by anyone. This was an independent academic research project in its origins. We came to the view that it was important to investigate these questions. At the constitution unit, we have been doing a lot of work for some years now on the appropriate conduct rules for referendums. We had not applied that work to Northern Ireland. We recognised that Northern Ireland is a very particular case with its own particular sensitivities. We wanted to contribute in this important area. When we reached out to colleagues in Belfast and Dublin, we saw there was agreement on the importance of these questions and the need to approach them in a careful, scholarly way. That was the origin of the project.

We are very clear in the report that the threshold in each referendum, North and South, would be a simple majority of 50% plus 1. This is partly because that is what the agreement says and it is important to follow the agreement. It is also partly because, even in the absence of that existing constraint, to have any other threshold would create an inequality between the two sides. We believe that in a basic question of sovereignty such as this, it is imperative the two sides be treated equally. It is very important the 50% plus 1 threshold be applied.

We talk about two kinds of planning. One is planning of the process of the referendums and another is planning about the form a united Ireland might take. As I said in my introductory remarks, we recognise that the question of when planning should take place and exactly what planning should be done by whom is a very sensitive matter. We do not seek to make bold pronouncements on those kinds of details. We say that by the time any referendum is called, it should be clear what the process will be. Therefore, a referendum should not be called unless it is clear what the processes and timetable of the referendum will be and what process would follow a vote for or against unification.

With regard to planning of the form of a united Ireland, there are different ways in which these referendums could be configured. One approach could be taken where the referendums could be held with no prior planning at all. We believe that is a bad idea, very clearly. A second approach would be to have a plan for a process that would be followed in the event of a vote for unification for working out the form of a united Ireland. The form of a united Ireland would, therefore, be worked out after the referendums. Third, the planning for a united Ireland could be done in advance of the referendums. We do not take a firm view between those two final ways of running the referendums. A great deal could be said about the relative merits of those, which we might get into in the course of the questioning. I will not attempt to go through all that in my reply to this question, however.

Let me quickly say something on citizens' assemblies and then I will perhaps hand over to Dr. Kenny who can comment on the constitutional issues raised by the Deputy. I am a big fan of citizens' assemblies. I ran the first UK-wide citizens' assembly and a number of the other members of the working group have been intimately involved with citizens' assemblies in Ireland and Northern Ireland. We see an important potential role for citizens' assemblies in this process. At the same time, we urge caution. To attempt to hold a citizens' assembly too early in this process, when there is not willingness from all parts of the community to engage with these discussions, could be damaging. It could be damaging to the credibility of citizens' assemblies more broadly, which would be a very unfortunate thing. Thinking through the sequencing, being careful and not going too fast into a citizens' assembly is an important point that we draw out. I will hand over to Dr. Kenny.