Dr. Mark Cassidy:

We know about what was introduced in the budget. It was, as the Deputy said, a minimum of €5.4 billion. We use that as an illustration of our more general point, which is that, looking forward, the economics suggest that if permanent spending increases are to be introduced, and we are certainly not advocating permanent current spending increases, then in some way they need to be funded. We use our economic modelling techniques to show the extent of that. Our results show that an increase of that order, approximately €5 billion or €5.5 billion, would, if not funded, lead to a permanent increase in the general government deficit of approximately 1.5 percentage points. What that means is that if one is thinking of returning to a balanced situation over a certain time, those 1.5 percentage points would need to be raised elsewhere. That is just pointing out the choice that exists. If one wants to increase permanent expenditure, which is a purely political decision, then over the more medium term that needs to be financed in one way or the other. There were some permanent increases, as the Deputy mentioned, and as the Fiscal Advisory Council has highlighted, in the previous budget.