Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Tuesday, 23 March 2021

Committee on Budgetary Oversight

Pre-Stability Programme Update: Discussion

Dr. Mark Cassidy:

We were in a very different situation with the recovery the last time. We have a much stronger banking system now, much healthier public finances, lower indebtedness and the structure of the economy is much better placed to recover.

We are also in a situation where the Government can put money into the economy during a downturn as opposed to the need to take it out of the economy during the downturn, which was the situation last year because our borrowing costs had risen to levels which, frankly, nobody was willing to lend us money at, and which compares with a situation now where we are borrowing for ten years at effectively 0%.

The viability of small and medium-sized enterprises, SMEs, will be a critical issue on the path to recovery of this economy. It is clear that there are a lot of SMEs that are experiencing considerable losses at the same time that they would be structurally fundamentally sound when the economy begins. That, of course, is the rationale for the Government supports to the SME sector which are extremely important. Much of the distress will not become evident until after those supports are removed and that is when public policy reaches a critical juncture. Certainly, public policy will have to make decisions with regard to the balance between ongoing support for the sector versus trying to assess viability and trying to support new emerging sectors.

With regard to the Central Bank's role in this, I suppose we engage at a supervisory level with the banks. It is important for them to make quality risk assessments so as not to be putting their own funds in jeopardy. At the same time, we also discuss with banks the bigger picture. The economy as a whole does not benefit if there is to be undue closing of small and medium-sized enterprises. It is in nobody's interest for the economy as a whole to be affected negatively as a result. Therefore, it is important that banks also take into consideration the larger picture in making decisions. I am not involved in the supervisory area. Personally, I cannot say anything more about that engagement, except to agree with what Deputy Durkan says. As a general comment, there are many small and medium-sized enterprises that are a significant part of society and community and they need to be considered as such rather than in the narrow financial contribution.

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