Professor Alan McKinnon:

The choice of low carbon technology for vans and trucks is a big subject which could take me the rest of the afternoon to explain, so I will try to keep it very brief. In the case of vans and small rigid vehicles, it will be battery electrification without question. Already, the total cost of ownership for a small van for an electric vehicle is comparable with that of a petrol or a diesel van. I think that process will continue. The challenge is more at the long-haul end for the heavier trucks where the options are battery, hydrogen fuel cell, possibly biomethane, although there is not very much of that, or e-highways. I point out that in Germany and Sweden, for example, they are trialling the electrification of highways. Analysis has shown that if there is a sufficient volume of truck traffic, that can be quite a cost effective way of decarbonising long distance road freight.

There is a big push at the moment for hydrogen for trucks. I am a hydrogen sceptic. Almost all the hydrogen we have at the moment is made from methane. It is, therefore, essentially a fossil fuel. It will take a long time to get to green hydrogen where we make hydrogen with zero-carbon electricity, electrolysing water. When we do that we waste a lot of energy in that electrolysis process. We can waste as much as 70% of our energy. That may be an option in big countries where the trucks have a long distance range such as the US where they may have to travel 1,000 km. However, because Ireland is a relatively small country and the length of haulage is relatively short, the new generation of truck batteries will be perfectly capable of handling that sort of distance range and would be a more efficient measure. The issue will be the cost of these trucks, which are not available yet. The first battery-powered trucks will probably be mass produced in the next two or three years. I noticed in Ireland's case, the Irish truck fleet is a bit older than the EU average. It takes about 14 years for Ireland to replace its truck fleet. When these low-carbon vehicles become available, it will not help much in getting Ireland to its 2030 target but it will help to get to the 2040 and 2050 targets.