Dr. Lynn Sloman:

I thank the committee for the chance to contribute to the discussion. I am director of a specialist consultancy, Transport for Quality of Life, based in the UK. I am vice-chair of a steering group appointed by the Welsh Government to oversee the delivery of public transport and active travel schemes in south-east Wales, set up after the Welsh Government cancelled the construction of a motorway around Newport, south Wales. I am also a board member of Transport for London but I am speaking today in a personal capacity.

I would like to make five points. First, the aim to reduce carbon emissions by 51% by 2030 is very challenging. Vehicle electrification will certainly make the largest contribution to that reduction but will not be enough on its own. With a ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars from 2030, the majority of cars on the road will probably still be powered by fossil fuels into the early 2030s. That is because the average car is used for 14 years before it is scrapped.

Second, given what I have said about fossil fuels, in addition to using technological solutions, we will need to change travel behaviours, as Dr. Windisch has said. The UK Climate Change Committee has recently recommended reducing demand, or care mileage, by 6% by 2030, through modal shift and measures that reduce the need to travel, such as remote working. I view 6% as a minimum – not least because there are significant risks of underachieving the necessary carbon savings if the take-up of electric cars is slower than forecast.

We have recently done some work for the Welsh Government to develop sustainable transport mode share targets. The Welsh Government published its transport strategy last week, including for the first time a target to increase sustainable transport mode share from 32% to 45% by 2040.

Wales also has a target to have 30% of the workforce work remotely on a regular basis. Scotland has set a target to reduce per capitacar mileage by 20%. It is that kind of strategy and those kinds of targets that are necessary.

Third, we need to pull all policy levers in the same direction. It is no good investing in cycleways and public transport while at the same time building more roads. We recently undertook an independent assessment of the English Department for Transport’s £27 billion road investment strategy, RIS2. We found that RIS2 was likely to increase cumulative CO₂emissions by about 20 megatonnes between now and 2032. That is about 5% of emissions from the strategic road network over the relevant time period. About one-third of the additional emissions are from construction, one-third from increases from high speeds and one-third from induced traffic. The UK Climate Change Committee has argued that the UK should prioritise broadband investment over road network expansion.

Fourth, if we are to achieve significant mode shift, very substantial investment - both capital and ongoing revenue - is required. That implies a transfer of resources away from road construction. We need to design cycle networks as good as those in the Netherlands and Denmark. The growth in popularity of e-bikes means that longer cycle trips become more feasible and so cycle superhighways radiating out from towns for 15 km or more should be part of a decarbonisation strategy. We need comprehensive integrated rail and bus networks as good as those in Switzerland and Germany, running from early in the morning until late at night, seven days a week. We need to recognise a universal basic right for everyone to be able to have a decent life without having to own or drive a car.

My final point is that road user charging, what I call a pay-per-mile “eco levy” on driving, should be part of the package to shift travel behaviours and income from it should be ring-fenced to provide an ongoing revenue stream for sustainable transport. Road user charging is seen as politically difficult but the evidence from Stockholm, Milan, London and elsewhere is that it creates more winners than losers and particularly benefits older people, young people, those on a low income and women. Places that have implemented a road user charge find that once people see how it improves their town or city, there is net support. We need to explore imaginative options. For example, some of the money from an eco levy could be used to fund free local public transport. A number of towns in France have made local bus services free with very positive results. I am very pleased because I live in Wales that the new Wales transport strategy includes a promise to deliver a strategy for fair road user charging over the next five years.

In summary, we need both technological and behavioural change. It is necessary to reduce car mileage and that implies a sustainable travel mode share target, a traffic reduction target or both. Modal shift will be undermined by large-scale road construction. We should look at creative options like a pay-per-mile eco levy on driving to generate a funding stream for benefits like free local bus services. We need to take the best from other countries and apply all of it in order to respond to the challenge we face.