Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Tuesday, 9 March 2021

Committee on Budgetary Oversight

Stability Programme Update: Economic and Social Research Institute

Dr. Kieran McQuinn:

I totally agree. Indeed, we have produced quite a few bits of research on the issue. In fact, a former colleague, Professor John FitzGerald, whom she may remember has written a number of pieces for us. In our forthcoming commentary, he will update an indicator that he advocated last year - a net national product. We will have updated estimates of that in our commentary that will be published, I think, on 25 March.

We have long noted the difficulties with GDP. Going back to last year's performance of the economy, it is clear that not all of it was a GDP issue in the sense that it reflected the very strong performance by a relatively small number of multinational firms in the export sector. That is why output, as a whole, across the economy actually increased.

Let us consider the subaggregates. The effect on consumption in the economy was pretty similar to that across most European countries.

There was a decline in consumption of about 9% last year. That was in the middle of the range experienced in most European economies. In that, we were quite similar to other countries. Ultimately, it was the multinational sector, and a relatively small section of it, that was responsible for Ireland registering a positive growth rate for the economy as a whole.

I could not agree more on the Deputy's point about GDP. When we publish our debt forecast, we always publish both debt to GDP and debt to GNI*. Debt to GNI* also has its issues; it is not a perfect measure. In fact, Professor Honohan discussed that in the recent note to which the Deputy referred. It is about looking at a variety of measures. The key metric or variable that the ESRI focuses on when we examine the strength and performance of the economy is the labour market because that gives the best indication of how well the economy is performing.

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