Dr. Kieran McQuinn:

At this point, it is difficult to assess the scarring effects of the crisis. This is one of the major issues that we have been trying to consider in examining the performance of SME sectors. Most concerns are about on the sectors that have been especially hit by the crisis, for example, hospitality, entertainment, retail, etc. This is particularly the case for SMEs that had reasonable levels of debt going into the crisis. The danger is that many of them could be overwhelmed by the levels of debt they have incurred over the past year and may incur in the coming months, if not well into the latter half of the year. Those are the sectors where we would expect to see a significant increase in employment, given that they are almost entirely shut down, but there is a likelihood that there will be a scarring effect among some of them. The danger, therefore, is that it will take quite some time for their employment levels to return to pre-pandemic levels.