Dr. Brian Caulfield:

I thank the Chairman and members of the committee for this invitation to speak about transport and emissions. I have been researching this topic for almost 20 years. I am a member of research committees at the Transportation Research Board in Washington D.C. and at the OECD, and I have published more than 75 papers on this topic. I was the lead author on a recent working paper for the Climate Change Advisory Council and I am also currently a member of the steering group on the review of the greater Dublin transport strategy with the National Transport Authority, NTA.

In 2020, in the midst of lockdowns, transport emissions dropped by just 17%. This gives a clear indication of the scale of the challenge we face to get a 51% reduction. It also needs to be considered against the backdrop of the following: population and employment growth predictions for the greater Dublin area, GDA, expect an increase in trips of almost 30%, 75% of our trips in Ireland are made by car, and the car population is expected to surpass 2.3 million by 2030. Decades of poor integration between transportation and land use planning have resulted in it being difficult to serve low density areas with public transport. This, coupled with an extensive motorway network, has almost locked us into car usage.

When we consider how to reduce our transport emissions there are two options: we can improve sustainable modes or change how they are fuelled. In 2019 the climate action plan saw electric vehicles, EVs, as the main way of reducing transport emissions. While I agree EVs will play a part in the overall strategy of reducing emissions, I would urge caution in over-reliance on this policy. There is a lot of uncertainty as to when price parity between electric vehicles and traditional vehicles will be reached. To reach our 2030 targets, assuming this price parity does not happen in the next nine years, it could require a State subvention of up to €10 billion. My research has shown the electric vehicles purchased to date tend to be in affluent, urban areas where there are alternative modes of public transport available. Equity and just transition need to be considered in this space.

Over the past 20 years, several large rail infrastructure projects have been discussed in the greater Dublin area. Projects such as metro and light rail expansion in Dublin will reduce our emissions profile. However, they may not do so before the 2030 deadline. These projects will be longer term in curbing our emissions, but their planning and construction needs to happen now if we are to stand a reasonable chance of reducing our emissions into the future.

When we evaluate these transport projects, we typically use cost-benefit analysis tools. However, this does not look at the opportunity cost of not doing the project. For example, metro initially saw a delivery date of 2007. The emissions that have been forgone in this example should be considered when making decisions on future infrastructure projects.

As I stated at the beginning, there is no silver bullet to this solution. A mixture of the following needs to be considered: the need to increase our public transport capacity, investment in active modes, the need to consider demand management measures, the role shared mobility has to play in this space, changing how we fuel our fleets, and looking at technology solutions. The target of a 51% decrease in emissions is a very daunting task for the transport sector and is happening against a background of increasing demand for transport.

I again thank the committee for the invite to talk today and I welcome any questions.