Dr. Tadhg O'Mahony:

I thank the committee for the invitation to contribute to its consideration of climate action and transport. I have worked in research and policy on climate action and sustainability for 17 years. Currently independent, I am an adviser to the Finland Futures Research Centre and was lead author of the transport chapter in the Environmental Protection Agency's 2020 state of the environment report.

It is to be welcomed that the committee seeks to scrutinise action on transport. The target to reduce emissions by 51% or more by 2030 must focus minds. Ireland's national transport carbon emissions are per capitathe fourth highest in the EU. Emissions have continued to grow even while we require them to decrease rapidly.

It is important to understand why we have been going in the wrong direction. An extensive rail system that existed at the formation of the State was largely decommissioned over the past century. In more recent decades, we have delivered the perfect conditions for lock-in to a carbon-intensive transport system. Through urban sprawl, our settlement pattern has increased travel distances. At the same time, transport policy directed major investment towards roads and motorways and allowed walking, cycling and public transport to stagnate or decline in comparison. As our wealth grew and increased demand for transport, decades of policy and private choices funnelled passengers into cars and freight onto trucks. A lock-in to an unsustainable system was inevitable.

The Climate Action Plan 2019, initiated by the then Minister for Communications, Climate Action and Environment, was a laudable effort at progress. However, it had a problematic relationship with transport. Key decisions on spatial and transport planning had already been taken in the national planning framework and the national development plan, NDP. They included modest, shorter term aims for compact growth and for shifting journeys to sustainable modes. As a result, it became clear that we would miss our 2030 emissions targets considerably. To plug this gap, the climate action plan was forced to ramp up the goal for the number of electric vehicles to a level that was difficult to achieve. We now have a far deeper emissions reduction target and it is a risky and potentially costly gamble to rely on electric vehicles to meet it. More importantly, this would make our 2050 emissions commitments harder to achieve and deepen the many sustainability problems associated with our transport system. Just some of these include world-leading traffic congestion, damage to economic competitiveness, road traffic accidents and the many impacts of particulate pollution on human health.

The commitments in the national planning framework and the NDP must be seen as a floor of ambition rather than a ceiling. They are not consistent with the scale of the challenge we now face. In response, the avoid-shift-improve approach is recognised internationally by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC, and others as the standard for deep emissions reductions and sustainability. This transformative approach demands that policy move from short term to long, from marginal tweaks to big vision, and from improving technology to transforming systems fundamentally.

"Avoid" means avoiding the generation of more and longer trips by preventing low-density development and repairing our existing sprawl. It has common aims with providing affordable, high-quality housing in vibrant, well-serviced communities. It uses spatial planning tools to channel virtually all future development into the existing footprints of our cities and into revitalising the physical core of the villages and towns of rural Ireland. "Avoid" also includes short-term demand management.

"Shift" is the next priority. It means moving journeys from private cars to walking, cycling and public transport. It implements the settlement and transport planning necessary to make these sustainable modes the dominant forms of movement in the years to come. There needs to be a particular priority on rail for passengers and freight. Rail is the safest and most sustainable option over longer distances and can support greatly increasing walking and cycling.

"Improve" means smaller vehicles, better engines and moving to alternatives such as electric. This will remain a necessary, but not a sufficient approach for a sustainable low-carbon future.

Transformation involves bringing together spatial, transport and climate action policy. It begins with 2050 goals and implements the short-term plans necessary to meet them. In Ireland, we have major gaps to address. Our vision, our analysis and our policy all need a shot in the arm.

To conclude, if our severely congested, emissions-intensive and economically costly transport system were a heart patient, it would be in cardiac failure. Our policy is providing an aspirin when the patient needs a triple heart bypass. Making progress will require vision and political leadership. Through the disruption of the pandemic, we now have a unique opportunity to reset and put ourselves on the right side of history.

I thank the committee once more for this opportunity to speak and I am happy to answer any questions members may have.