Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Tuesday, 16 February 2021

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Housing, Planning and Local Government

General Scheme of the Affordable Housing Bill 2020: Discussion (Resumed)

Dr. Larry O'Connell:

It is difficult to specify a number, but I will give the committee an idea. Some 20% of the housing stock in Denmark is cost rental. If that model is applied, we will get a very high number. The limited profit sector in Austria delivers 23% of all new construction in the residential market. Again, that model will produce a very high number if it is applied. Property Industry Ireland did a piece of research that it showed to us. The figures are worth checking, but they provided an indication. The research looked at the number of people on incomes of more than €50,000 but under €90,000 and produced a figure of 400,000. All of that supports Mr. O'Connor's point. The scale of this is in the thousands, not the hundreds. Going back to Deputy Ó Broin's point, I can see that figures of 400, 500 or 1,500 seem low. However, the issue for Government is first that it has to prove the concept. I can see that. Mr. O'Connor has made the point that we must look at some of the regulations and what it would count in costs. We have to look at how we put limits on returns for investors. There is some work to do. My feeling is, once we have proven the concept, the demand will be there to deliver at a much higher level than our current ambition. I can see the tension between trying to test the concept and roll out the demand. The international evidence suggests it is a very attractive concept.

The other point on cost rental, and I believe the Housing Agency has figures on this, is that it delivers an immediate impact. In the models we looked at, there could be rents 20% below what the market is at. By the end of 2030, rents could be 40% below what the market is at. Therefore, there is a long-term benefit to cost rental. We will see then how the equity begins to be used to supply more housing. There is also an immediate short-term impact, and that is where we will see the scale of demand for this, if we can do it.

On proving the concept, the current cost rental model is bringing costs down because it has low finance. There are other levers with which to bring the cost down. We need to begin to look at them in respect of using the land, for example. As we use these other levers, we can bring the cost down further again. That, equally, will boost the demand. I hope that answers the Deputy's questions.

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