Mr. Liam Lacey:

On the issue of the return of passenger business to ferries and the impact that may have on the capacity of ferries to carry freight, we are very hopeful that there will be a significant return of passenger business because that is the lifeblood of RoPax services but it is somewhat unlikely in the first quarter. I make that point because it gives us some relief from the problem and the absence of passenger business helps. It is the desire of the industry and our desire that the passenger business will return as quickly as possible, and sooner rather than later, because it is needed. As that begins to happen, the industry is capable of responding by introducing more capacity. I have outlined four different responses by the industry and the introduction of additional capacity is the one that takes the longest time. That can be done. As the implications of the return of passenger cars to RoPax vessels and the timeframe become clear we can go back and rely on a response like that from industry.

I hope that the Deputy will agree that the response by industry over the last six months and the response that is planned from the beginning of 2021 are very significant indeed and will produce sufficient capacity to meet the needs of diverted land bridge traffic.

What is key is the comparison or substitute ability of other services for the land bridge. The key issue is that the land bridge is the fastest route to market.

That speed cannot be replicated on other services. In using other services, it is necessary to accept that compromises will have to be made. It is necessary to accept that there will be some changes to the supply chain because the speed of the land bridge cannot be provided by those other services.

There is another key ingredient, which is the frequency that is possible using land bridge services. On the Irish Sea, the services that make up part of the land bridge system are those that operate principally between Dublin and Holyhead and those that operate between Rosslare and Fishguard and Pembroke. On the Holyhead routes, there are up to eight sailings a day. On the Rosslare routes, there are four sailings a day. These 12 sailings give options to land bridge users seven days a week. We cannot replicate that with direct services to the Continent.

The use of direct services to the Continent will be more concentrated. There are fewer services. The total land bridge business is a maximum of 150,000 units per annum. The total amount of business using roll on-roll off, ro-ro, services to and from Ireland in 2019 was almost 1.2 million. Therefore, land bridge represents 12% of the total. It is impossible to produce the frequency for 150,000 vehicles that can be produced for 1.2 million vehicles. We have to accept that there will be less frequency on direct routes and importers and exporters will have to adjust to that.

I am presenting the facts and what represents the next best alternative to the land bridge. There are a number of different options, all involving changes to supply chain. The options are direct routes to the Continent. With a new entrant from January on Rosslare to Dunkirk, we get a model that is closer to what the land bridge delivers because it is delivering traffic into that part of France. Dunkirk is only 40 km from Calais. That is a notable addition. We have other additional services out of Cork into Zeebrugge, and we have Stena Line announcing an additional vessel in January between Rosslare and Cherbourg. These are all important developments.

Through those developments, we certainly have sufficient capacity. We have argued heretofore that sufficient capacity exists in the system because there are other services linking Dublin and Zeebrugge and Dublin and Rotterdam that rely mainly on unaccompanied movement of goods, but they are viable substitutes for the land bridge. Our call to the market is, if people want to protect their business, they should be aware of all of these options, that perhaps a portfolio approach to the range of services that they use is the most appropriate, and that they use different services as appropriate to protect against difficulties in other services and spread the risk in that way. Being aware of all of the different options gives choice to importers and exporters and improves frequency. If the speed of transit is increased, and it will be in using any of those other services, there are changes to supply chains that need to be made. That could mean developing buffer stocks on the Continent in warehousing, etc., to deal with the demand.

Turning specifically to the question of fast-moving perishable goods, and often high-value goods fall into the same category of needing to move quickly, the land bridge is categorised by the movement of perishable goods, which are often of high value. There is a difficulty there. The next best alternative does not overcome the difficulty but there must be changes in the supply chain if we are to overcome those problems. Therefore, a renegotiation of delivery patterns is absolutely embedded in the choice of any of the other alternatives. This is possible because we know that those alternatives for lots of different types of traffic are good substitutes. I accept that there is a problem with traffic. I mentioned it in my presentation. That is heavily reliant on the transit time of the land bridge because that cannot be replicated by the alternatives.

I was asked as well whether we are monitoring events in other ports, and we are. There is contact all the time, through ourselves and through the Department, on how matters are proceeding in other ports that are important to Ireland. We report on that regularly.

It is concerning that as we head into Brexit, there are trials taking place in UK ports and there is talk of disruption, etc., but to a great extent we expected that to happen. What is unclear is how long lived that will be and how quickly UK ports will return to normal operations, albeit with the requirement for customs controls and inspections.