Dr. Philippa Whitford:

Many think that a no deal is something we would want because it would drive support for independence, but it would damage Scotland as much as any other part of the UK. I do not think any politician in Scotland wants to see havoc. Unfortunately, even the deal we might get will be so thin that there will still be a 6.1% reduction in where our GDP would have been had we stayed in the EU; it is about 8.5% if it is a no deal. Even with the free trade agreement that may be on the table, the impact on us is significant.

Scotland has seen a consistent move of support towards independence since the UK actually left the EU at the end of January. There is no question that Brexit, which is completely against the wishes of the majority of Scottish voters, is the foundation of what is changing people's minds. Last year, the polls did not change because there was still hope that Brexit would not actually happen, that some other route would be found or even that, as the Scottish Government put forward as a compromise in 2016 in the Scotland's Place in Europe report, we would stay in the Single Market and customs union while inside the UK, that is either the whole UK, or Scotland and Northern Ireland, which could have helped solve that problem. Since the UK actually left the EU at the end of January, support for independence has grown, and that will only continue to strengthen.

A no deal is damaging to everybody. It was a matter of Brexit on its own but also the way Scotland has been treated by the Government by not having respect paid to it and not being included in the negotiations, despite the then Prime Minister Theresa May originally saying she would consult across the UK and find a deal that all parts of the UK would support. She did not do that. The UK Internal Market Bill is no way to improve a relationship and I think Scotland is heading in one direction only. On Boris Johnson's refusal to consider a referendum for Scotland, I suggest to those who supported Brexit, the idea that the EU might have said that the UK could not even hold a referendum on its EU membership would not have gone down very well. The current refusal goes down precisely the same in Scotland.