Dr. Eddie Casey:

It is a great question. It is something we have been trying to unpack, as Mr. Barnes said. The areas we are trying to look at are local government spending and teasing out exactly where the spending is going in that sector. Thankfully, the Department has published a bit more information on that but because it is still very limited, we cannot say how much of the spending that has been ramped up this year will be permanent versus temporary. In addition, non-commercial semi-State bodies are also included. If we think of all of the IT companies, technological universities, RTÉ and Irish Rail, those are the types of bodies whose spending from year to year is fairly predictable but every now and then we could see a sudden ramp-up for whatever reason. We do not know why it has increased this year but we suspect that it is probably linked to investment plans. That could be a temporary increase or a long-lasting one. We just do not know.

There are other parts as well, including what are referred to as extra budgetary funds. The Chairman is probably aware of the Ireland Strategic Investment Fund, which is a large fund that was set up with a commercial mandate to invest in the domestic economy to boost growth. There is spending from that as well that could be identified in general Government expenditure but we do not know how much. There are many unknowns and as we said, it is up to one fifth of all Government spending so it is very large. If it is not predictable, we have to ask why and it is very hard to find those answers.