Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Tuesday, 8 December 2020

Committee on Budgetary Oversight

Post-Budget Analysis: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council

Mr. Sebastian Barnes:

As we are very aware of our mandate, when we use the word "appropriate", it is in terms of being conducive to sound economic and budgetary management, which is what we are required to assess under the Fiscal Responsibility Act. Therefore, we are very careful about that and to make clear that we supported and viewed as appropriate the overall stimulus being provided during the recovery. It is very important that borrowing is undertaken in 2020 and 2021 because that will stimulate the economy. We have concerns, however, about continuing to borrow during the recovery phase, when essentially that would not be appropriate, given the high level of public debts and the risks that this creates. As I said, we do not take a view on any specific spending or tax measures as a general rule. As these are not issues that we analyse, look at or have any expertise in, I would be reluctant to make those sorts of judgments here.

What I will say is there are legitimate questions - the Deputy has raised many of them - about taxation, fairness and the efficiency of different instruments and I think it is worth looking at these things. As there are many different forms of tax on wealth of different designs, these are legitimate questions for people to ask. We do not have an answer to them but they are legitimate questions. The Covid crisis, as the Deputy noted, has had very complex and differentiated effects. For example, some people have experienced very difficult circumstances and may have lost their jobs, income or businesses while other people have continued to be paid and have not spent very much. In its wake, we know there have been a lot of savings in the economy, so there is a legitimate question about whether such measures are may be warranted. Obviously, anything that would help to reduce the long-term pressure on the public finances would help to make the economy less vulnerable and would be desirable. There are reasonable questions to be asked in this regard. While we have no specific answers to them, there are questions there and international experience can be looked at. However, the outcomes, as well as the fact that actions have been taken, also must be considered.

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