Mr. Sebastian Barnes:

In the short run, it is Covid while in the slightly longer run, it is Brexit. We have had some better news on Covid with the vaccine. The next few months will be quite difficult but beyond that, perhaps things will be less risky than we thought. Of course, there are many unknowns regarding the vaccines. In the short run, we hoped we would know by this point what will happen with Brexit. As Dr. Lawless explained, it is a large shock and the short-run effects in the early part of new year could be quite strong. There is significant uncertainty around both of those things. Those two things stand out but which of the two is the more important depends on the timeframe.