Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Tuesday, 8 December 2020

Committee on Budgetary Oversight

Post-Budget Analysis: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council

Mr. Sebastian Barnes:

That is a very good question. This is basically local government, commercial semi-State bodies and extra-budgetary funds. Collectively, they add up to quite a bit. Until recent years, there was not a great deal of action happening there. This arose in the previous budget and this year as well. Quite a lot of the increase is coming through in these areas. We lack two things. We lack actual information on where the money is being spent. What we receive is a net figure that gives the overall number but it does not tell us where it is coming from. There are some offsetting amounts between spending and revenue. We have asked the Department of Finance to provide us with a much clearer picture of the numbers. The Department is working on this, which is good news. It would also be good to understand more about what is going on.

Quite a lot of it is probably capital investment. It would be good to know what the investment plans are so that we and others can factor those into budgetary projections. It is an issue that has arisen over the past couple of years that basically relates to local government, semi-State bodies and a few other things. We are asking for more transparency in terms of numbers and understanding what the underlying story is.

Regarding the Deputy's final question about the areas where the budgetary framework could be strengthened, it is very good that the Government plans to look at the medium term in April. As we have said, it will face a number of challenges and we believe those challenges may be easier to manage with some measures to strengthen the fiscal framework. We focused on three. One is having a target for the debt-to-GNI* ratio. Obviously, in a period when debt is very high and needs to be brought down, it is natural to target the debt-to-GNI* ratio, particularly a few years ahead where the Government will have a bit of time to control the dynamics. Regarding one particular concern, previous Governments have had a debt target but, in our view, without very much commitment. It was also specified in terms of GDP, which is not the appropriate measure of national income, so this really needs to be measured in these terms. Under European rules, the debt rule is done in GDP terms, which does not make a lot of sense for Ireland and does not give it an accurate picture. The second area is around a rainy day fund. We also talked about a prudence account in the past. These are ways of essentially building up precautionary buffers for future shocks. It would also be a very good way of saving the excess corporation tax receipts and helping to smooth that over time. This is a relevant measure to consider after this year where the Government is clearly trying to stimulate the economy in 2021. The third measure is the kind of control of spending in normal times. The expenditure ceiling system has not worked that well. We have also had periods in the past couple of years where expenditure growth has been a bit too fast relative to the speed of the economy so strengthening the domestic controls around that would be helpful. We also make one or two other suggestions as well. These could be very helpful measures for the Government to consider as it sets out its medium-term plan in the autumn. It could put these measures in place that would strengthen the institutional framework as well just announcing what it plans to do.

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