Dr. Cillian De Gascun:

The short answer is that, from a vaccine perspective, there have been some very positive soundings that data from the phase 3 clinical trials will be available for analysis at the end of November. Until we see those data, we will not know how well the vaccine performs. In the context of the virus, we have had four seasonal human coronaviruses in recent decades. All crossed the species barrier and have become endemic in the human population. The original severe acute respiratory syndrome, SARS, of 2002 did not manage to become established and is no longer in circulation. The Middle East respiratory syndrome, MERS, coronavirus of 2012 still causes occasional cases but it did not manage to adapt sufficiently to acquire the ability to transmit effectively between people. SARS-CoV-2 has now done that. Viruses do not just disappear; they tend not to just go away. The only virus we have managed to eradicate through vaccination was smallpox. We are getting close with measles, rubella and polio but it is a long way off. Unfortunately, therefore, we cannot pin our hopes on a vaccine. The chances of its being 100% effective and taken up by the whole population and of eradicating the virus in the near future are very small. This virus is likely to become endemic in the population. The non-pharmaceutical interventions Dr. Holohan has spoken about today will remain incredibly important. Therefore, we have to get transmission down to a low level and change our behaviour to keep the virus suppressed to a low level in the community. The virus, over the coming years and decades, may become milder but it is very unlikely to just disappear, even with a vaccine.