Dr. Tony Holohan:

The principle learning from that is that when we get to low levels of transmission then everything that we do that increases that risk is something we have to look very closely at. In the context in which we are in at the moment, we hope we will make progress and get us back to low level transmission of the kind that we saw over the course of the summer. When that happens it allows us to recommend the easing of measures and do a range of other things that are currently not possible. The extent to which that increases, if we do too much of it, can facilitate transmission but then there are specific risks that arise in this country. In particular, because this is an island, if we get to those low levels of transmission then international travel becomes a relatively more important potential source of new infection both in absolute and proportional terms. Particularly then, if we are talking about a situation where we are seeking, perhaps as a European community, to try to facilitate an additional European level of travel, then that would have the effect of increasing the absolute risk as well as the proportional risk of the importation of infection.

The second one is the strength of our public health capacity to respond. To pick up on the story that has been talked about, that particular case that ultimately was the super spreading event that led to 59 additional cases, we now know, as an international community, the faster we are able to pick these up and intervene at super spreading events, clusters and outbreaks at local level, the greater the chance we have to stop this disease becoming established as widespread community transmission. In other words, it is wild out in the community but we do not know who has or has not got it, which is the situation we faced in late September and into October that caused us to recommend the measures that are in place at this point.