Paschal Donohoe (Dublin Central, Fine Gael) | Oireachtas source

I thank the Deputy. I begin with the scenario of a no-deal Brexit. Brexit occurring without a trade deal would have a significant impact on how we would have expected our economy to perform next year. I will give two figures to illustrate what that context would look like. In the absence of a trade deal, post-Brexit, we expect the economy to grow by around 1% to 1.5% next year. If a trade deal is agreed in the context of Brexit, our national economic growth could be between 3% and 4%. That is a very big difference, and the biggest difference that will be felt in people's lives will concern where we are with levels of unemployment. We indicated that if we were successful in securing an agreement with the United Kingdom, that unemployment could be approximately 8% for next year.

This would still be very high, but in the absence of that agreement, unemployment would be between 10% and 10.75%. That will make such a big difference to the lives of so many people.

In terms of whether the economy can recover before a vaccine is found, we should distinguish between two things relating to the vaccine. The first is a vaccine being discovered and the second is the vaccine being broadly available. As the Deputy well knows, they are two very different events. Do I believe our economy can recover before a vaccine is discovered? The economy is showing signs already of recovering in terms of how we could measure growth in that it is growing in a very different way from how it grew earlier in the year. Even if we end up having to deal with a no trade deal Brexit, the economy will still be bigger next year than it was this year, and our assumptions are based on there not being a broadly available vaccine for most or any of next year so it can recover.

Then we get into the distinction between a recovering economy and a recovered economy. I believe we will only get to the point where we have a recovered economy if there is medical technology or a vaccine that is broadly available and accepted. That would create an environment of confidence in which we could get back to the levels of employment and income growth we left behind at the start of this year.

With regard to the parts of the economy that are most affected by it, there are two. The first is those parts of our economy that rely on the assembly of people and for whom social and physical distancing has such an impact and, therefore, where we are with hospitality in particular. All of the parts of the hospitality sector are the most adversely affected by this type of technology not being available. The second comprises aviation and tourism, because confidence regarding being able to travel healthily is having a fundamental impact on people's willingness to travel. This in turn is tied up with the availability of a vaccine.

I go back to the point I made earlier on a vaccine being discovered and verified and then becoming broadly available. While I am not by any means an expert in these matters it would appear there will be a period of time between these two things happening.