Dr. Colm Henry:

I might take that question. There has been much observation internationally, as the Chairman points out, of the lower rate of hospitalisation and some suggests this represents a change in behaviour of the virus, but the virus has been sequenced in Swiss studies and the overall diversity of the virus has not changed. There is no new variant and there is no development of some less severe mutation. The most likely explanation for this trend we are seeing internationally is as follows: we know the virus has a steep age-dependent rate of illness and mortality. The more testing one does, particularly in younger people, it will result in an imbalance between tests and hospitalisation. We have seen in this country, as in other countries, a predominant shift towards positivity in younger age groups. The CEO referenced that 71% of cases in the past two weeks are aged under 45. It may also reflect that older people are behaving more cautiously and as such are less prone to the illness as they were when we knew less about asymptomatic transition, the mode of transmission of the virus some months ago. Nevertheless, the big caveat and warning at the end of all that is that there is a lag time between seeding within the community - between open outbreaks in the community such as in some counties or where there is high levels of transmission - and inevitable community transmission leading to older people and vulnerable groups getting the disease.