Mr. Dan O'Brien:

Regarding New Zealand, the International Monetary Fund, IMF, believes that New Zealand's economy will contract by more than Ireland's in 2020. That may prove to be incorrect, but it is the IMF's current forecast. Therefore, the painting of New Zealand as returning to complete normality may not be correct. For example, indicators right up to July pointed to further declines in consumer confidence in New Zealand. Although New Zealand's approach may turn out to be correct, we cannot be certain in any way that that will be the case. My hunch is that it will not.

On the Deputy's specific comments and questions, my hunch is that we need to follow a risk-based approach. People need to be advised by medics on how risky something is for them. Any of the medics present can correct me if I am wrong, but the risk of younger people of dying from this virus is tiny. In Ireland, not a single child or baby has died. No one under 15 years of age has died. I checked this with the CSO on Monday - eight people under 65 years of age and with no health issues have died. The majority of the population is under 65 years of age and has no health issues. We need to assess individually how great a risk we face from this virus and adapt our personal behaviours on the basis of that risk.

If we look back over the past 100 years, what had the greatest impact on human welfare holistically? Was it the Spanish flu, from which tens of millions of people died, or was it the Great Depression, which led to social and political upheaval and eventually war? I can say, as an economist, that we are on track for a Great Depression-type event. I have no idea how things will turn out, but we know what happened in the 20th century. Look at the history books. What event had a greater impact on human welfare, the Spanish flu or, ten years later, the Great Depression?