Professor Carl Heneghan:

There were some questions about different issues. We are talking about many more clear policies to get down to zero and then when there is a period of zero it is time to open up and that is what New Zealand's policy is. There are 30 or 40 other circulated pathogens at any one time. Respiratory pathogens are a complex issue. People are coming forward with simple proposals to say we will have a zero-Covid policy and that we can have non-essential travel, etc. If we go down that line, we have to be clear and the policies have to say we will follow a path to zero Covid. That is what people are talking about but the message cannot be fudged thereafter. Once anything else is allowed, it will be a question of mitigation.

The second issue relates to some of the evidence that has just been mentioned. For instance, admissions into intensive care units have gone down from 12% to 4%. The rate for people going on ventilators has gone down from 90% to 20% in England and survival has gone up from 50% to 80% so there has been a radical change in outcomes in the three-month period.

It is about being clear, and if one is clear that one wants elimination, one must have a clear hard-hitting policy to get to zero. If not, it is not elimination.