Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees
Thursday, 13 August 2020
Special Committee on Covid-19 Response
Covid 19: Implications of a Zero-Covid Island Policy
Professor Anthony Staines:
I thank Deputy McAuliffe. From my perspective, we are trying to do something very difficult. We are trying to live with this virus. The Government has articulated that policy clearly. However, it is very difficult to keep the number of cases at 20 or 30 a day. The likely outcome is that we will have periodic flares similar to those in Kildare, Laois and Offaly in other parts of the country. The endgame is that this will continue until such time as a vaccine becomes available. Hopefully, a vaccine will be available by the middle of next year but, as Mr. O'Brien articulated, if one never becomes available, we have to think about this differently. I am optimistic that there will be a vaccine in the not-too-distant future. The problem, from a businessman's perspective, is that one never quite knows.
A hotelier was interviewed in Kildare - it was a small family-owned hotel - who bought in €8,000 worth of food for an event at the weekend. All of that money is now gone. That is a substantial hit for that person and that business. It becomes difficult for businesses to make plans, particularly small, family-run businesses, which make up a large part of employment both in urban and rural Ireland. Businesses crave some level of certainty.
The other side is that of opening schools. What does one do if, for example, we open schools in Clare, as we fully intend to do at the beginning of September, and then a week later there is a lockdown in the county? The lower the circulation of the virus in the community, the safer the schools are. The basic point is that low-level circulation of this virus is like a fire in the wall of one's house. It is hard to confine it to one small area of the wall. It is likely to spread unpredictably. Bringing the virus down to zero, as the Deputy described, is an intensification of the measures we are currently taking. We would advocate for, at least, discussion of the idea of green zones.
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