Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Tuesday, 7 July 2020

Special Committee on Covid-19 Response

Impact of Covid-19: Overall Fiscal and Monetary Position

Mr. Frank O'Connor:

In essence, as the Deputy stated, there are a number of risks. I suppose the message is that we came into the crisis from a position of strength that gave flexibility to policymakers to deal with the crisis. Over the medium to long term, given our elevated level of overall debt, we are conscious of and would talk about the potential risk to higher rates. From our perspective, investors are always talking about the risks, such as the near-term risk of Brexit and the medium-term outlook for changes in international corporate tax to which the Deputy has alluded. Other concerns might be out there. From a debt perspective, we are in what we often refer to as the permanent contingency business, which involves looking at what we can do to allow policymakers choice and flexibility, and then trying to get a phased approach to budget balance and dealing with issues as they arise. That brings us back to the long-term, smoother profile we have. If interest rates were to rise beyond that horizon, one should not forget that not all of the debt will roll in one year. It will take a period of time of extended higher rates to start to see our debt service costs increase because the majority of our debt is locked. It is fixed-rated debt and it has been extended. I think I alluded earlier to the fact that we have one of the longest average lives.

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