Professor Paddy Mallon:

The likelihood of the lockdowns really depends on two factors. The first stress test for the system is going to be what happens in August, as the Irish people decide whether they travel overseas or not, because we will inevitably have imported cases coming back into the country and that is going to stress the testing system. The second big stress for the testing system is going to be the onset of seasonal influenza because we will be getting a large number of people with symptoms consistent with Covid seeking tests at one time, and we need to be responsive to that. Within those two settings, the likelihood of re-emergence of infections is high and the likelihood of re-imposing restrictions really depends on two factors. It depends on the geographical spread of the infections so, for example, if they are all localised in one geographical setting, one could argue for a geographical restriction. It also depends on the number of cases and the rate of increase in those cases.