Professor Michael McMahon:

The Deputy will see the report when it comes out, but the point we will try to make, as is always our position, is not to tell policymakers what they should do to address any issue but to highlight some of those issues. In particular, the two big increases we will highlight are in social protection and health spending, where the pressures that grow over the next 30 years will be quite substantial. If we add those two together, the numbers we are talking about are of the order of some 8% of GNI. If one accepts that these are Government spending commitments which will have to be met, then the decision has to be made either to raise funds from another source to make up for that spending or to cut spending in another area. The key point is that these are relatively slow-moving, easily predictable trends, and the sooner one takes action the better. One can take small bits of action over long periods to mitigate the effects of these issues on the fiscal position. That is the key point we are going to draw out in the report.