Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Tuesday, 16 June 2020

Special Committee on Covid-19 Response

Covid-19: Impact on the Fiscal Position

Mr. Sebastian Barnes:

It has two effects. Dr. Casey might outline the numbers. Migration may be disrupted for a while because of the Covid crisis but in the longer run we assume it will carry on. A key aspect of migration in Ireland is that it amplifies growth. In periods where growth is high, migration tends to be much stronger and there is much bigger impulse, whereas in periods where growth is weak, migration tends to produce an adjustment mechanism as an outflow or some adjustment on migration. Much will depend on the underlying growth potential of the economy, but Dr. Casey might give a sense of the numbers in terms of how much is coming from a natural increase and from migration. We should bear in mind that migrants are typically of working age and migration is one factor that keeps people in the workforce, which is an important effect.

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