Mr. Sebastian Barnes:

It is very hard to know, for the reasons Dr. Casey outlined. Two factors are important. Unlike in 2008, when Ireland was a particularly weak country that attracted particularly negative focus from the markets, Ireland is now kind of in the same boat as all the other countries. The Covid crisis has impacted Ireland like many other countries and so it is not suffering from a particular weakness, as it was in 2008.

The other matter that is important for the medium term is that one benefit for Ireland is that it is likely that its medium-term growth rate will be quite a lot higher than that of many other countries. That partly reflects its demographics and partly reflects its productivity performance. Ireland's ability to get its debt down, if interest rates stay as low as they are, is likely to be greater than that of most other countries in the euro. That is a very positive aspect for Ireland in the medium run, assuming somewhat higher levels of growth than those of most other countries can be achieved. Growing the economy is very important, whether through stimulus or long-term investments in skills and all the measures needed to make the economy work. Ireland benefits from relatively favourable debt dynamics, even if it may be starting from a relatively high debt level.