Mr. Sebastian Barnes:

The predicted fall in exports that we are interested in will come from two things. One is that the disruption to supply chains and trade caused by Covid has made it harder for people to export goods and the other is weak demand. Demand is weak everywhere. It is partly disrupted by the virus but is also due to the same factors of low investment and low consumption affecting demand overseas as well as here. That is where we see the fall in export demand coming from.

A highly relevant point for Ireland is that the multinational sector is responsible for a lot of the pharmaceutical exports and those exports would have relatively little impact on Ireland in terms of employment, taxation and other things. The position is very different for exports from more traditional sectors, such as agrifood, which employ many more people and are much more anchored in the economy. The exports we are most concerned about are from domestic sectors as opposed to multinationals, which are often very volatile as well.

Perhaps the chief economist or other colleagues wish to comment.