Mr. Sebastian Barnes:

The growth rates for next year may be quite high because the economy will be bouncing back, assuming everything works out like the central scenario. Assuming there are no more confinement measures once they are lifted, we will compare 2020, which is a year that was partially locked down and very disrupted, with 2021, which will be a year when business should be functioning again. One can easily get growth rates that appear strong relative to what we are used to seeing, but that is only closing a very small part of the gap relative to the initial downturn. The Deputy noted there are downside risks, particularly in the event of a second wave into next year. That could have very severe consequences. There are many risks around this but it is not surprising to see a high growth rate. That should not be interpreted as a boom of any sort. It is just a correction in the sense that business that goes from being locked down to open is going to be able to contribute to GDP.

In terms of the other risks, and the Deputy has described corporation tax, Brexit is a risk. These central scenarios and what is in the stability programme all assume we move to a relatively good free trade agreement with the UK at the end of the year. The Deputy can assess the likelihood of that for herself. There is clearly a risk that we are in a severe scenario of the sort that we considered last year of a no-deal Brexit at the end of the year. That prospect should not be discounted. IFAC did a lot of analysis of that last autumn, if the Deputy is interested. That could provide a very severe shock to the economy and comes against a background where the economy is already weakened. There is a discussion about whether that shock might be greater or less in the current environment but it will definitely add to situation and make the recovery much more difficult. It remains a real risk.