Professor Philip Nolan:

Conscious that we, as individuals and as a society, have faced difficulty, tragedy and loss over the past 100 days, and knowing, as Dr. De Gascun said, that significant challenges remain ahead for all of us, it is useful to take an opportunity to examine our collective response to Covid-19 and to learn what lessons there are to be learned. In that spirit, I welcome the opportunity to be with the committee today, welcome the work it is doing and thank members for the invitation.

The emergency response to a pandemic can be supported and informed by the expert advice of epidemiologists, statisticians and disease modellers, whose analyses and insights can help us understand the spread of the disease, model and forecast possible scenarios, and monitor the effects of different interventions. The process of mobilising a specific Irish epidemiological modelling advisory group, IEMAG, began on 8 March 2020, it was formally established on 11 March and it first met on 12 March. The group comprises almost 50 researchers, academics and practitioners, with a very wide range of expertise, forming an interdisciplinary team with the required competencies to analyse, monitor and model the spread of Covid-19. The terms of reference of the group include gathering evidence on the epidemiology of Covid-19 - essentially, how the virus is transmitted and how people become ill; using statistical approaches to monitor and understand the outbreak in the Republic of Ireland; developing epidemiological models to forecast probable scenarios for numbers of new cases of Covid-19 over time and to monitor the impact of public health interventions; developing a healthcare capacity, demand and resource model to assist the health sector plan for the possible impact of each of these scenarios; and developing analysis on the geospatial characteristics of the outbreak in Ireland.

We present our analyses, through the chair, to NPHET, at least weekly, and key conclusions are also shared weekly with the public through the Department of Health briefings. We need to be aware at all times that statistical analyses and mathematical models provide very useful insights but also have important limitations, so our input has always been contextualised within the wider public health expertise available within IEMAG itself and NPHET. The work of the advisory group has offered special insight into the management of the outbreak in Ireland. We provided early evidence from international studies on the particular characteristics of how SARS-CoV-2 is spread, complementing and reinforcing the work of the expert advisory group, chaired by Dr. De Gascun, and the Health Information and Quality Authority, HIQA. Our early modelling work demonstrated that the strategy of mitigation or "flattening the curve" alone would not be an appropriate or sufficient response; rather, in the early stages of this epidemic, it became clear that we must suppress transmission of the virus to very low levels to protect public health. Colleagues have also been able to provide NPHET and Government with important insights into the effectiveness of public health interventions in reducing the number of cases, the force of infection and the reproduction number. Our focus is now shifting to monitoring and early warning of and rapid response to any significant resurgence of disease into the future.

This pandemic has allowed me to see up close and independently the different elements of our response to a public health crisis.

I want to conclude speaking as a citizen and witness to this by recording my admiration, first, for the people of this country, for their fortitude in the face of this crisis and the diligence and care with which they have attended to public health advice; second, for healthcare workers, including and in particular those working in public health, among whose number I count colleagues, friends and family members for their courage, dedication and professionalism; third, for the very many public servants I have encountered across the Department of Health, the HSE and other agencies who have impressed me deeply with their ability, collegiality, humanity, work ethic and effectiveness; and, finally, for the 50 or so members of the Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group who, in addition to their normal duties, have through their expertise and sheer hard work made a modest but important contribution to our response to Covid-19. I am more than happy to answer any questions that the committee might have about the nature of our work.