Mr. Seamus Coffey:

There is some information out there in aggregate terms. It is not as though we have unearthed things that are not publicly available. We look at the budget documents published by the Department of Finance and the broader Government accounts included with the budget documents. That information pointed to the €700 million increase in capital spending that was not featured in the equivalent figures in April. There is publicly available information, but the issue arises in understanding what drives spending, what areas it is in and what type of activity it is. We pointed to increased spending by the approved housing bodies, but one issue that arose is their purchase of existing houses. That might not add to economic activity. Alternatively, that spending could signify the construction of new houses, which definitely would add to economic activity.

When it comes to Exchequer spending, the Department publishes a 247-page report that goes line by line through the changes in Exchequer spending. That report focuses on 80% of activity. When it comes to the other 20%, we just get the aggregate figures. It could be a because of lack of quality reliable information. This has been flagged by the Department of Public Expenditure and Reform. The OECD recently published a report on Ireland's public finances and recommended a move from the narrow cash-based approach of the Exchequer accounts to a broader accrual-based approach of general Government accounting. There has been a Government decision to implement the recommendations of that OECD report, and the Government hopes to do so over the next five years. While there might be problems at present, there is an awareness of those problems. An external report has found that changes need to be introduced, the recommendations of that report have been accepted, and there has been a Government decision to move in that direction. Our concern here is that this has had a greater effect when it comes to 2020 than would otherwise have been the case. By and large, the budgetary changes in the Exchequer account drive budgetary changes in the overall general Government accounts, but that has not been the case this year.

Our expectation is that there will not be another budget for 2020. We think the budget was real. Outside of a Brexit contingency, primary Government spending on goods and services, that is, all Government spending excluding interest, is planned to rise by €4.4 billion next year. That is a real increase.