Dr. Kieran McQuinn:

Sure. There has been an increased discussion about the impact of a possible global slowdown or a potential recession in the US. There are many indicators which suggest that we are not terribly far from such an eventuality. At the same time, we have to weigh everything up and try to get a balanced view of what we think the most likely outcome for our economy will be in 2020. There is no doubt that some of our major trading partners are confronted by structural issues. Along with my colleague, Professor Karl Whelan of UCD, I have been looking for a long time at the growth prospects of the EU over the medium term. Our assessment of how we see the economic performance of the EU evolving over the medium term is quite pessimistic. Some of the difficulties in the EU economy are also witnessed in the US economy, the UK economy and the major western economies generally. I refer to demographic issues such as population ageing, for example. The slowdown in productivity that has been observed in many western economies is a puzzle that has been confounding macroeconomists for quite some time. When these factors are put together, a slower growth trajectory across all of these major economies over the next ten, 15 or 20 years becomes evident. We incorporate all of these factors when we are making our assessments. In the main, we are still reasonably confident that the economy is likely to grow quite strongly and robustly in 2020.