Dr. Kieran McQuinn:

In general, the way we have done it since the start - and it is the way in which most institutions that examine Brexit tend to do it - is by considering it through the prism of a large-scale structural model of the economy. We try to capture the various impacts on the headline indicators for the economy. In our case, we did that through our use of COSMO, which is the standard model of the economy. Crucially, we have had a close relationship over the years with the UK National Institute of Economic and Social Research in London, which maintains a large suite of models that model the western world and its overall impacts. From our perspective, it is important that we link into that framework, given that many of the impacts of Brexit will come through trade channels, as we have articulated. To capture that, models of the EU and UK are needed and our macro model links in to that. The analysis is mainly used to examine issues from a longer-term perspective, to consider the impact of Brexit in the next ten-year horizon. It is interesting that the work we have done more recently has built on much of the sectoral, micro-level work that Dr. Lawless has done, tying it in with the overall, broader research. In the latest analysis, we built a great deal on the trade work she has done.