Dr. Kieran McQuinn:

It would have an impact in that lower GDP will have an impact on the debt-to-GDP ratio. I do not know the figure off the top of my head but we could easily work it out. We looked into the impact of Brexit on the public finances when it first arose a few years ago. If one thinks of the fiscal space in simple terms, the Government is allowed to increase the fiscal space in line with the underlying growth rate of the economy, or the potential output growth rate of the economy. That is the kind of metric used by the European Commission. We pointed out that as Brexit will have a negative impact, not only on actual output but also on the potential Irish output over the medium term, it will consequently impact the fiscal space available to the Exchequer. That was over two and a half years ago, but at that time we quantified that it could have an impact of up to €600 million over three years. Brexit operates in a variety of different ways, and through the public finances in particular. If one considers it in terms of the metrics used, it could adversely impact the potential output growth rate, which would impact the fiscal space available to the Government and affect whatever expenditure plans it might have.