Dr. Kieran McQuinn:

The initial impact would entail a substantial increase in imports of agricultural produce into the UK, particularly meat produce from the US. That would have substantial implications for the domestic sector here. There are no two ways about it. I am drawing on my past experience and history with Teagasc, and many of my colleagues from Teagasc would be much better able to comment on this issue. However, key sectors of the Irish agricultural sector, such as the beef sector or those at the commodity level, have had difficulties generating a sustainable income without structural aid payments from Brussels for a long time. That was the case even when I was working in the area years ago. Many beef producers use those structural payments not just as their profits but also to cover some of their costs. That is the kind of structural difficulty being faced in the Irish market, and that is the premise from which we are starting. If those farmers faced a sizeable reduction in the price of their products, which is inevitably what would happen as far as the UK economy is concerned, it would put even further difficulties and pressures on that sector. All I can foresee are very negative implications for the sector over a long period of time, which would compound pre-existing difficulties in the sector. As we know, the sector is facing many other pressures, but sizeable price reductions in what it gets from the UK market would be a huge pressure on a sector that is already struggling.