Dr. Kieran McQuinn:

I will take the second question first, our overall assessment would be that the economy continues to perform very strongly this year. In the first quarter of the year it was performing exceptionally strongly, we had employment growth year on year of over nearly 3.5% which is very strong. As we moved into the second and third quarters it seemed to be softening slightly, some of the indicators were suggesting that, but some of the trade statistics for the third quarter have been very good, particularly on goods. The two basic indicators that we tend to look at for the underlying performance of the economy are the tax take across the different headings and the labour market and both of those have been performing very strongly. The tax take has been increasing across the different headings. We know that the corporation tax issue is separate and that the strength of returns in that area does give rise to some concerns. All the other headings, VAT, income tax, stamps etc., have been performing very strongly. The unemployment rate is now down to less than 5% which is very low by historical standards. Our expectation is that in the absence of a no-deal crash-out Brexit next year, the economy will continue to perform strongly into 2020. There are other factors such as the perceived global slowdown and the moderation in growth rates of our major trading partners, which will undoubtedly have an impact. We do not think the economy will grow as strongly next year as it has this year.

Housing is always the major issue or one of the big issues. This year we expect to see in the region of 21,500 units but our estimates have consistently shown we need somewhere in the region of between 30,000 and 35,000 units to meet the underlying demand in the economy. As long as there is that gap between supply and structural demand, we will continue to see strong pressures, particularly in the rental market, and we see rental rates continuing to increase very sharply.

We have done a lot of work looking at the affordability challenges and issues associated with it, and the amount of money people are spending on rent. The amount of income people have left after they have paid for their rent is diminishing. Those are the key challenges that need to be addressed. In terms of the overall economy, our assessment is that it is likely to perform very strongly again into 2020.