Kieran O'Donnell (Fine Gael) | Oireachtas source

I mention the figures the ESRI has put for a deal scenario and a no-deal scenario with Brexit. The ESRI looked at the modelling and found GDP could be approximately 2% lower in the long-run and 4.8% lower in a no-deal scenario. The first-year impact would be that the level of real input into the Irish economy could be approximately 0.6% lower in a deal scenario. I am surprised in one sense that the margin between a deal scenario and no-deal scenario is relatively small. It is 0.6% or 1.2% depending on whether there is a deal, but I thought the margin would be higher and that in a no-deal scenario the reduction would be exponentially higher. I am surprised it is only double. I would have expected that in a no-deal scenario there would be a far larger drop. Dr. Lawless also said that, "if these estimates turn out to be extremely accurate, there is uncertainty about the adjustment path". The witnesses might expand on that. They may have already dealt with what they anticipate to be the likely outcome of Brexit with the deal that is before the British Parliament at the moment. Do the witnesses believe there will be a free trade deal between the UK and the EU? I wanted to make that technical point because I am surprised the difference in margin is not higher.