Dr. Kieran McQuinn:

That is a difficult question. We stated in our most recent commentary that framing budget 2020 was difficult and complex, given the uncertainty that prevailed at the time. In general, we supported the measures that were announced from a broad, macro perspective. On the one hand, funds were put aside, as the Deputy said, to address certain sectors that would be particularly hit by a no-deal scenario, but on the tax side, few changes were made and we, broadly speaking, welcomed that as the most prudent outcome.

As to the appropriate budget strategy for 2020, if the economy continues to perform strongly into the new year, and it is on course to record a significant growth rate this year, and the UK leaves the EU with a deal of some sort, it is debatable if Ireland should be spending those funds in an aggregate sense. The beef sector will be particularly impacted by Brexit, but it has underlying issues that need to be addressed and discussed separately from Brexit anyway. We must be careful about spending the pot of cash, the money that has been set aside, outside a no-deal scenario and if the economy continues to perform strongly.

Our assessment was that, outside a no-deal scenario and if the economy continued to perform strongly, the best outcome of the budgetary package would be neutral or contractionary. We felt that some heat should be taken out of the economy because it is performing very strongly and there is a good possibility that it will continue to perform strongly in 2020 in a deal scenario.

The Deputy has asked a difficult question. It would be a balancing act under a no-deal Brexit and the impacts it would have, or even the uncertainty around a no-deal even if it does not happen, because the impacts would still have to be quantified. In general, under a deal scenario, the economy is likely to continue to perform very strongly in the short term, in 2020, and as such it is debatable as to whether it would be prudent to spend the sums that have been set aside for the no-deal scenario.