Dr. Martina Lawless:

As I alluded to in my opening statement, the impact will largely hit the agrifood sector, which is the sector most tightly linked to the UK economy. It is the sector most likely to be impacted, whether the UK imposes tariffs or opts for a low-tariff regime but one which lowers tariffs to countries across the board. There is big exposure for the food sector in that context. To that extent, the sectoral impact will land quite heavily on agrifood.

The most affected types of firms will be smaller Irish firms. Most of our analysis would suggest that the multinational sector, which accounts for most of our overall exports, would be relatively unaffected, or affected only to a very small degree, because those multinationals are not so reliant on the UK as a market. Many service sectors would not be particularly affected in a no-deal scenario.

Accepting that the agrifood sector will be mainly affected moves us on to a regional impact assessment, which suggests that the impact will be spread according to where these sectors are located. That will mean a more negative impact on rural counties that are heavily dependent on agriculture and food processing. We have not specifically mapped that out in detail but that is a logical conclusion.