Dr. Kieran McQuinn:

To echo Dr. Lawless's point, the stated position is as outlined, with the agreement followed by a free trade agreement afterwards, and the authorities must plan accordingly. There is no doubt that the possibility of securing a free trade agreement in the period announced just does not seem to be entirely credible. It is very unlikely that this time next year there will be a full free trade agreement in place. This again gives rise to the spectre of the uncertainty arising from a potential no-deal crash-out Brexit this time next year.

The people in the institute have looked at the short-term consequences as, logically, most analysis tends to look over a longer term and seeing the impact of Brexit ten years down the track. What is apparent when considering the implications of Brexit for the here and now is that it has already had a negative impact. It has had that negative impact through a variety of channels, including consumer and investor sentiment and the exchange rate effect, for example. That has happened even before Brexit has occurred. We used to have a consumer sentiment indicator.

It is notable how that indicator simply fell off a cliff from November of last year. One of the issues is that the underlying economy has been performing relatively strongly, so the impact tends not to be seen, although it is there. Therefore, as we move into the new year and there is further scope for uncertainty, that will continue to have a negative impact on the economy.