Dr. Martina Lawless:

That is slightly difficult to answer as much depends on the UK election that is happening in two weeks' time. It is probably now the case that a deal and transition agreement to negotiate a free trade agreement is the most likely scenario. The transition period as currently instituted, which is to conclude at the end of 2020, is extremely tight for the negotiation of a free trade agreement. I foresee considerable pressure to extend that arising over the next year. Having less than a year is an extremely short period in which to negotiate a free trade agreement. To what extent the risk shifts to another no-deal scenario at the end of 2020 if a free trade agreement is not in place will depend on how those negotiations go over the next year.

Much has changed with respect to the budget because of the October deal. At the time of the budget forecasts being formulated, the size of the risk meant it was sensible or prudent to base the budgetary forecasts on those formulations. Fortunately, that risk of a very disorderly no-deal scenario that everybody was concerned about at the end of October seems to have receded considerably.