Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Tuesday, 12 November 2019

Committee on Budgetary Oversight

Ex Post Budget Scrutiny: Minister for Finance and Public Expenditure and Reform

Photo of Paschal DonohoePaschal Donohoe (Dublin Central, Fine Gael) | Oireachtas source

I was in the Dáil when that issue was raised, I think by the Deputy and another Independent colleague. We have since published the information we had available on the distributional analysis of budget 2020. It is to be found on the Department's website at budget.gov.ie. I will outline the figures for the Deputy.

It is estimated that 29% of households will benefit as a result of the announced direct tax and welfare measures announced. A total of 71% of households are due to experience no change in the level of their disposable income. They are the headlines figures. The key reason is that the changes were very small and focused. As the Deputy said, the social welfare changes were focused in targeted measures as opposed to changes in broad rates.

The Deputy asked what I expected to see happen with the corporation tax yield. I expect to see them grow again next year, as published in our tax forecast for 2020 which was published on budget day. At this point it is difficult to specify the timing of the change I indicated because one of the key variables is what will happen in the OECD's work which will not conclude until the end of next year at the earliest. It will only be possible to give an informed answer to the Deputy's question once we are clear on the impact of that work and when the findings will be implemented. We will not be clear on it until this time next year.

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