Pearse Doherty (Donegal, Sinn Fein) | Oireachtas source

Does the Minister or the Revenue Commissioners have any statistics on the performance of this tax head in 2019? Do we know, for example, if the forecast for 2019, which was around €64 million in additional revenue, if memory serves me, was accurate? Have we achieved that? I assume that in terms of 2017 and 2018, it is hard to read those years because the plain packaging of cigarettes would have had an impact on stocking levels. If one combines the data for those two years, which to some degree smooths out that issue, there is an over-estimation of €179 million according to my calculations. Has there be an any analysis done by Revenue or by the Departments of Finance or Health in terms of quantifying why there was a reduction? A positive factor would be evidence to suggest that a significant number of people moved away from tobacco products and into vaping and so on but is there evidence that there is now more black market activity? If it is the case that more black market activity is taking place, then the outcome is worse. People can buy cigarettes at €4 per packet on the black market as opposed to €13 or €13.50. The argument is made that increasing the price of tobacco products puts people off but if we are creating a situation, however unwelcome, where there is more black market activity then we are working against ourselves in the context of price sensitivity and deterring smokers. Has there be any analysis done on this?