Dr. Colm Henry:

We tend to track our projections for flu based on the experience in the southern hemisphere. According to reports from Australia, there was an earlier than expected peak in flu-like illnesses there but it did not sustain. That bodes well for us in the northern hemisphere in terms of the likely impact of the flu. It is the H3N2 strain, for which the vaccine is effective. Based on the experience in Australia, which largely informs our experience during the winter, there may be an early onset but it will not be sustained. The impact will be low in terms of severity and the strain of flu is susceptible to the vaccine we will introduce.